Election Analysis Exclusive II: Here Is What Happened

  1. Biden won Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral votes by around 54,000.
  2. Biden won Arizona’s 11 Electoral votes by around 11,000.
  3. Biden won Georgia’s 16 Electoral votes by around 14,000.
  1. Both the Economist/YouGov polling and the CNBC/Change Research polling had Biden winning the General Election by 10% points.
    The reality? The popular vote will be decided by around 3–4% points.
  2. In Pennsylvania, the final NBC/Marist poll had Biden up 5% and the Monmouth poll had Biden winning by 7%.
    The reality? Pending certification, it looks like that number will actually be less than 1%.
  3. In Wisconsin, the final ABC News/Washington Post polling predicted a Biden win by 17% points! The New York Times’ polling and CNBC’s polling predicted an 11% point Biden win, and Reuters predicted Biden victorious by +10%.
    The reality? Biden won Wisconsin by less than .25 of 1%.
  4. In Florida, the final Quinnipiac Poll had Biden winning by 5% points, and the Reuters/Ipsos poll had Biden winning by 4%.
    The reality? Trump won Florida by 3.3%.
  5. In Ohio, the final Quinnipiac poll said Biden would win the bellwether state by 4% points and the Emerson poll predicted a Biden win by 1%.
    The reality? Trump won Ohio by 8.2% points!!!
  1. Joe Biden stated in one of the 2020 debates that he wouldn’t declare victory until the election is “officially certified.”
  2. In 2016, Hillary Clinton and her campaign officially joined the recount efforts.
  3. In 2000, it took Al Gore 37 days to concede to George W. Bush.
  1. The Pandemic. COVID-19 played a huge factor in driving turnout to Joe Biden and swinging the slim amount of undecided voters to his column, as well. Ultimately, based on the popular vote, Americans (by a razor thin margin) wanted a new direction and different leadership to deal with the coronavirus.
  2. The Brand Factor. The power of voting “against” a candidate made a bigger difference than the power of being “for” a candidate. Democrats “needed” to get Trump out of office. Republicans “wanted” to vote for Trump (I’ve written about this “need vs. want” concept in regards to the economy. According to a post-election analysis by Rasmussen Reports (one of the very few polling outlets that got it right), found that “only 56% of Biden voters say they were voting for Biden. 29% were voting against Trump. Meanwhile, 90% of Trump voters say they voted for the president while just 8% were voting against Biden.” The Biden team simply followed the data. Just focus on a better COVID-19 response, make Biden less visible in the media (in this case, he stayed out of the public eye as much as possible), and let Trump be the constant presence (and voice) on the campaign trail to motivate Biden voters to turn out and vote. The early data indicates this strategy moved a broader swath of voters to turn out for Biden — especially in Georgia, Arizona, and in the Midwest states where the “Blue Wall” held.
  3. The Spoiler: In every state that determined the election, but especially in the three states that decided the Electoral College win for Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, seems to have played the spoiler. This includes:
  • In Pennsylvania, Trump was declared the loser by around 54,000 votes. Jorgensen picked off close to 78,000 votes.
  • In Arizona, Trump was declared the loser by around 11,000 votes. Jorgensen won over 51,000 votes.
  • In Georgia, Trump was declared the loser by around 14,000 votes. Jorgensen captured over 62,000 votes.
  1. Republicans outperformed the media’s predictions of six net losses in the U.S. Senate races. They held the line by netting only one loss. The new majority will now be decided by the special election runoff in Georgia). *In full transparency, my political media agency was involved in Susan Collins’ upset win in Maine and Joni Ernst comeback victory in Iowa.
  2. In 2018, Democrats netted 40 seats to win the majority in the U.S. House. The public polling predicted Democrats would net 10–15 more seats in 2020. As of this writing, Republicans will net double digit seats in the House of Representatives — and it will be the slimmest majority in decades.
  3. Republicans re-elected all six incumbent governors and netted one new governor (in Montana). They now hold a 27–23 lead in state governorships.
  4. Republicans will add majorities at the state legislative level and control 55 of 99 upper/lower chambers.
  5. Republicans will pick up net new lower ballot state offices, as well.

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Phillip Stutts

Phillip Stutts

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Founder/CEO: Win Big Media | Founder: Go Big Media | Repped by Vayner Speakers & Keppler Speakers | Author: “Fire Them Now: The 7 Lies Digital Marketers Sell…”