Election Analysis Exclusive II: Here Is What Happened
Well, here we are.
Did your candidate win or lose?
If you read my pre-election article (which our analytics team estimated 523,314 people actually read it so far), you know that I predicted Biden would win the popular vote, 156.7 million total votes would be cast (with national votes still being counted, it’s predicted that around 156.5 million Americans voted), and Trump would narrowly win the Electoral College.
But amidst the media’s current 24/7 clickbait stories regarding Trump’s allegations of voter fraud or Biden’s claim that it’s time to stop all the fighting (after Democrats shamed and canceled Republicans for four years) and come together in peace — some CRAZY storylines have emerged from the election that hardly anyone is reporting.
So, I’ll do it here with the 7 most interesting storylines from the election fallout. Hold on, some of these will shock you..
I. ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE? NOT SO MUCH
According to the current data, much like Trump’s win in 2016, Joe Biden did not win in an Electoral College landslide. Consider this:
- Biden won Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral votes by around 54,000.
- Biden won Arizona’s 11 Electoral votes by around 11,000.
- Biden won Georgia’s 16 Electoral votes by around 14,000.
Approximately 79,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia put Joe Biden into the Electoral College lead — out of an estimated 156+ million votes cast … 79,000 votes decided this election, a difference of just .0005 of 1% (It reminds me of Donald Trump’s 2016 performance where he shockingly won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by a total of 77,744 votes total). If Trump had flipped roughly 39,501 votes (this year) in just PA, AZ, and GA, he would have won reelection with 275 electoral votes (and if Trump had flipped Biden’s very narrow 20,540 vote margin in Wisconsin, he would have won 285 electoral votes).
Bottom line: This was an insanely close election even though the “mainstream” media’s pre-election polling told you it was going to be an Electoral College blowout. Never forget that … Every. Vote. Counts.
II. PUBLIC POLLING WAS SHAMEFULLY WRONG — AGAIN
The national media polling was grossly inaccurate. There is no disputing this fact. This includes:
- Both the Economist/YouGov polling and the CNBC/Change Research polling had Biden winning the General Election by 10% points.
The reality? The popular vote will be decided by around 3–4% points.
- In Pennsylvania, the final NBC/Marist poll had Biden up 5% and the Monmouth poll had Biden winning by 7%.
The reality? Pending certification, it looks like that number will actually be less than 1%.
- In Wisconsin, the final ABC News/Washington Post polling predicted a Biden win by 17% points! The New York Times’ polling and CNBC’s polling predicted an 11% point Biden win, and Reuters predicted Biden victorious by +10%.
The reality? Biden won Wisconsin by less than .25 of 1%.
- In Florida, the final Quinnipiac Poll had Biden winning by 5% points, and the Reuters/Ipsos poll had Biden winning by 4%.
The reality? Trump won Florida by 3.3%.
- In Ohio, the final Quinnipiac poll said Biden would win the bellwether state by 4% points and the Emerson poll predicted a Biden win by 1%.
The reality? Trump won Ohio by 8.2% points!!!
Imagine if the vast majority of polls you were allowed to see (the entire election) were conducted by right-wing media companies and right-wing educational outlets - and they all said Trump would win a massive landslide … but on Election Day, they were proven horribly wrong (in two straight election cycles like 2016 and 2020)? What would the liberal activists and media say about this attempt to “promote” Donald Trump instead of following proper polling data models? No doubt, they would have accused these “right-wing” outlets of voter suppression, racism, and ultimately tried to “cancel” them.
You may be asking, “Did anyone get polling right?”
Yes, a few polling outlets (who were often discredited by the major polling institutions before Election Day) nailed it. The following polling and research firms predicted a toss-up race: Invisibly (see their incredibly smart analysis here), The Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, and Susquehanna Polling and Research.
Regardless of this polling disinformation insanity, here is the truth — perfectly summarized the day after the election by Alex Berenson, the former New York Times reporter, best-selling author, and current data-obsessed contrarian, “Whether Trump or Biden ekes out a coin flip win does not change the fact the polls and media narrative were massively wrong. There’s no Blue (or Red) Wave here, no anti-Trump surge, just a deeply divided country.”
III. WAS THERE REALLY VOTER FRAUD?
I’m not in a position to say if there was or wasn’t voter fraud because I’m not on the front lines of key states right now. I am hearing from my Republican friends that it’s crazy how much fraud occurred. My Democratic friends tell me there is no evidence of mass voter fraud and Biden narrowly but clearly won. Like Joe Biden, I believe that we should have all the legal votes counted and certified before a winner is declared. And I’m biasedly suspect when the media tells me that Trump should concede because their rhetoric almost always favors the Democrats position. And going by the Democrats on words and past actions, I’m not sure what the controversy is in ensuring a fair election took place. This includes:
- Joe Biden stated in one of the 2020 debates that he wouldn’t declare victory until the election is “officially certified.”
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton and her campaign officially joined the recount efforts.
- In 2000, it took Al Gore 37 days to concede to George W. Bush.
But if I’m also being completely honest, I don’t know if massive voter fraud occurred on election day. I’m drawn to this quote from Bret Weinstein, the liberal “professor in exile” and host of the Dark Horse Podcast: “It is not clear there was substantial fraud in the 2020 U.S. election, but it is clear there is valid reason for concern. Why is there not broad, bipartisan interest in finding out?”
Ultimately, Biden will be declared the winner AND some voter fraud probably occurred. Despite all of this post-election chaos, I’m sure of one thing: Trump will shed light on our country’s voting security systems. He’ll show how irregular and vulnerable we are to cheating when no other politician has addressed this issue in generations. I promise Trump will shine the biggest spotlight on it, expose it, and ultimately lead to voting reforms. Bank on that.
IV. HOW DID JOE BIDEN WIN THE POPULAR VOTE?
“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” — President John Kennedy
First of all, mad props to all American voters who turned out in record numbers this year –even during a pandemic. Americans fulfilled their civic duty and that’s good for democracy.
Early results and exit polling data indicate a few factors that turned the election for Joe Biden. In fact, I’ve identified (in the data) three big issues that decided this election:
- The Pandemic. COVID-19 played a huge factor in driving turnout to Joe Biden and swinging the slim amount of undecided voters to his column, as well. Ultimately, based on the popular vote, Americans (by a razor thin margin) wanted a new direction and different leadership to deal with the coronavirus.
- The Brand Factor. The power of voting “against” a candidate made a bigger difference than the power of being “for” a candidate. Democrats “needed” to get Trump out of office. Republicans “wanted” to vote for Trump (I’ve written about this “need vs. want” concept in regards to the economy. According to a post-election analysis by Rasmussen Reports (one of the very few polling outlets that got it right), found that “only 56% of Biden voters say they were voting for Biden. 29% were voting against Trump. Meanwhile, 90% of Trump voters say they voted for the president while just 8% were voting against Biden.” The Biden team simply followed the data. Just focus on a better COVID-19 response, make Biden less visible in the media (in this case, he stayed out of the public eye as much as possible), and let Trump be the constant presence (and voice) on the campaign trail to motivate Biden voters to turn out and vote. The early data indicates this strategy moved a broader swath of voters to turn out for Biden — especially in Georgia, Arizona, and in the Midwest states where the “Blue Wall” held.
- The Spoiler: In every state that determined the election, but especially in the three states that decided the Electoral College win for Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, seems to have played the spoiler. This includes:
- In Pennsylvania, Trump was declared the loser by around 54,000 votes. Jorgensen picked off close to 78,000 votes.
- In Arizona, Trump was declared the loser by around 11,000 votes. Jorgensen won over 51,000 votes.
- In Georgia, Trump was declared the loser by around 14,000 votes. Jorgensen captured over 62,000 votes.
V. THE “SHY TRUMP VOTER” WAS REAL
The previously discussed “Shy Trump Voter” that put the fear of God into Joe Biden supporters? It was very real.
1. It appears the national media’s polling deliberately failed to take the “Shy Trump Voter” into account (among other things). A few polling and research firms did account for it — the same ones I mentioned earlier — Invisibly, The Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, and Susquehanna Polling and Research. These firms ended up being the most accurate polling firms in 2020 because they all accounted for this voter.
2. According to the research firm Public Opinion Strategies (in a post-election analysis), the “Shy Trump Voter” represented 4% of the overall vote and 19% of Republicans — 64% of these voters were college-educated white women.
VI. TRUMP’S HISTORIC GAINS WITH AFRICAN-AMERICANS, HISPANICS, AND LGBTQ ALMOST WON HIS REELECTION
There is no dispute that Joe Biden won the African-American, Hispanic, and LGBTQ vote. But here is something that should scare the hell out of Democrats … Donald Trump received more votes from African-Americans, Hispanics, and the LGBTQ community than he did in 2016. How big? According to the exit polling:
1. Trump improved his standing with African-American men by 4%, from 14% in 2016 to 18% in 2020.
3. Trump improved his standing with Hispanic men by 8%, from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020 (As you can see from the graphic above, some Hispanic communities voted overwhelmingly for Trump, like Cuban-Americans in Florida. Another example is in Zapata County, Texas, where Trump won this 94% Hispanic county, and it’s the first time a Republican presidential candidate has won the county since 1920).
4. According to data analyst Adrian Gray of AGC Research, Trump received 26% of the non-white vote this election. The highest percentage of any Republican presidential candidate in 60 years.
5. Trump doubled his standing with Americans that identify as LGBTQ, from 14% support in 2016 to 28% in 2020.
The big question the media is asking right now is: “How did this happen?” The answer is clear that these voters rejected defunding the police, cancel culture, and the media’s bias against Trump. They saw the media put them in a box and stereotype them as automatic Biden voters. Much like the white working-class voters of 2016, Donald Trump was their Molotov cocktail to this biased narrative.
Let me summarize these findings like this – to quote Twitter contrarian and host of the Ruthless podcast, ComfortablySmug: “Trump got the most non-white support of any Republican running for president since 1960. He really sucks at being a racist.”
VII. THE ENCORE: IT WAS A HISTORICALLY SUCCESSFUL ELECTION FOR REPUBLICANS DOWN THE BALLOT
If Joe Biden is certified as the next President, it will be a huge win for Democrats. But if you peel the curtain back on the entire election, it was a terrible night for the Democratic Party. Actually, it was an utter disaster. Let me explain:
- Republicans outperformed the media’s predictions of six net losses in the U.S. Senate races. They held the line by netting only one loss. The new majority will now be decided by the special election runoff in Georgia). *In full transparency, my political media agency was involved in Susan Collins’ upset win in Maine and Joni Ernst comeback victory in Iowa.
- In 2018, Democrats netted 40 seats to win the majority in the U.S. House. The public polling predicted Democrats would net 10–15 more seats in 2020. As of this writing, Republicans will net double digit seats in the House of Representatives — and it will be the slimmest majority in decades.
- Republicans re-elected all six incumbent governors and netted one new governor (in Montana). They now hold a 27–23 lead in state governorships.
- Republicans will add majorities at the state legislative level and control 55 of 99 upper/lower chambers.
- Republicans will pick up net new lower ballot state offices, as well.
The Washington Post’s left-leaning reporter James Hohmann stated about these gains, “Even if Biden wins, Tuesday was a bad night for Democrats in lots of ways. His performance with Latinos shows how the Democratic establishment has taken them for granted, and Dems failed to flip any state legislative chambers ahead of redistricting.”
National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar had this to say: “This is hard to believe: Dems didn’t pick up a single state legislative chamber in 2020. Republicans, against expectations, won the New Hampshire state Senate and the Alaska state House.”
CONCLUSION: SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
I’ve written about how I see our political climate getting worse, not better going forward. After looking at the election results, I still believe this.
We are a deeply divided country – 78 million voters think one way; 73 million voters think another way. If you believe, as my liberal friends now tell me, that we will “start the healing process,” you are horribly wrong.
While I might have wrongly predicted that Trump would squeak out an Electoral College victory, the overwhelming evidence from this election makes it clear: the media is dangerously manipulating the American public (and has been for years) and promulgating chaos to sew divisions, get clicks, and make money.
They clearly engaged in a massive voter suppression effort to beat Donald Trump, and they succeeded without any repercussions.
Until we demand the media change with our viewing habits, by turning them off, expect the fights to get bigger and more dangerous.
Even though I’m coming off somewhat pessimistic, there is a part of me that is still very hopeful.
Voters very clearly rejected riots, Wokeism, defunding the police, and the “Green New Deal” with their 73 million votes for Trump (especially considering his improvement with minority and LGBTQ voters), Republican congressional gains, state gubernatorial majorities, and state legislative increases.
It also appears that Americans want to take a break from Trumpism, even if they like the job the President was doing (especially with the economy). As Erick Erickson stated about Trump: “It could be the public got tired of him, not his policies.”
To summarize, the extremes on both sides lost.
This election came down to voters wanting a calmer and more balanced government. The middle won.
Maybe our politicians should listen to that message and work together to save our country.
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