Election Analysis Exclusive: Here is What Will Happen on Nov. 3

Who is going to win? That is the question everyone is asking.

After 24 years and 1,283 political campaign victories, including three winning U.S. Presidential races, I will break down how I see the race heading into Election Day.

Our partnership with the largest data collection, analytics, and AI company in the United States has given me a behind the scenes look at what’s really going on with American voters. Utilizing our database of 200 million+ Americans, 550 million+ connected devices, tracking 10 billion+ daily online decisions, and over 1 trillion daily searches, and comparing it to all the other outside data and polling, I have a unique perspective on how this election will turn out (and we’ve given this data away for free since March).

Hold on tight. It’s not what you think…

Here’s the thing, 99% of this election is not about persuading undecided voters. There are too few left. I believe this election is about how the candidates and their campaigns motivate their supporters to get out and vote. My breakdown is not close to what you will read in the mainstream media. Let’s dive in.

1. STATE OF THE VOTERS:

Two storylines have emerged in the final weeks. The mainstream and left-wing media outlets have already assumed a Biden victory is in the bag. For example: As of this writing, The Economist gives Biden a 96% to win the election. Their reasoning?

  • Almost every public media poll has Biden up big, both nationally and in key electoral states. You can check out how they aggregate the polls here.

On the other hand, Trump supporters are more confident in a victory than at any point since the pandemic began, due to a few factors:

  • Universal distrust in the national media polling (which got it wrong in 2016) and a belief in new voter modeling pointing to Trump momentum in key states heading into Election Day.

2. TOP MOTIVATIONS DRIVING VOTERS TO THE POLLS:

  • Biden Voters. The top issues motivating Biden voters to get out and vote? They deal almost exclusively in non-policy issues, including:
    1. Fervently Anti-Trump — A vote against Trump is more important than a vote for Biden.
    2. Continued fear around the coronavirus and wanting new leadership to address the pandemic differently.
    3. Returning decency to the White House.

3. VOTERS ARE BEING MISLED HEADING INTO ELECTION DAY IN THREE WAYS:

  • Most media polling is not scientific, and “national media polls” are completely useless. If we’ve learned anything since 2016, it’s that public polling is all over the place. The reason being is that Americans have drastically changed their communication habits to take polls (away from relying too heavily on live phone calls to text and social media surveying). I could write an entire post on this one topic, but for brevity’s sake, here are four reasons public polling gets it wrong over and over again.
    1. Most public polls rely too heavily on live callers for their methodology.
    2. Most public polls sample too many Democratic voters and too few Republican voters.
    3. Most public polls rely on surveying “registered voters” (too many unlikely voters in their sample) rather than “likely voters.”
    4. Most public polls take too long to conduct and use pre-approved voters that agree to be polled in advance (rather than polling them randomly).

Unfortunately for you, the most accurate polling companies are conducting private polls — which are not released to the public. However, there are outliers — pay attention to the polling firms that have consistently gotten it right in recent elections. For example, The Trafalgar Group is one of the only polling firms that picked Trump to win in 2016. They are also a complete innovator, disruptor, and outlier in polling methodology — and now they are releasing some of their polls publicly (another interesting outlier survey firm to pay attention to right now Invisibly.com).

  • Little acknowledgment by the mainstream media and polling companies of the “Social Desirability Bias” and the “Shy Trump Voter.” In today’s cancel culture, a large percentage of voters are falling into these two categories. The “Social Desirability Bias” is when a voter answers a polling operator in a way that makes them look best (in the eyes of the person asking the question). The voter may say they are voting for Biden or Trump in a poll but take the exact opposite position when voting on election day. The “Shy Trump Voter,” on the other hand, was a proven fact in 2016. Spectrum News recently defined the “Shy Trump Voter”: “A recent online study that found Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to admit to withholding their true preference to public opinion pollsters about who they will vote for in the presidential election is reviving claims of the “shy Trump voter.”

4. 8 KEY FACTORS THAT WILL ALSO DECIDE THIS ELECTION:

  • Where’s Hunter Biden? According to our data, the Hunter Biden story has had a big effect on voters. The left-wing and mainstream media’s attempt at suppressing this story has created a reverse-effect on some undecided and low-propensity voters (who believe Joe Biden will bring honor and decency to the Oval Office). These voters are now digging into the story (social media platforms that banned the story have created more desire to learn what happened). This “nothing to see here” story will factor into the final vote.

5. MY PREDICTION — HERE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN:

I’ve spent 24 years in politics, I’ve been a part of 1,283 winning elections. Here is my prediction on the total vote, the popular vote winner and the electoral vote winner:

  • WHO WINS ON THE CRITICAL POLICY ISSUES? In our data, I’m seeing a huge swing with voters seeking safety with ending the riots, funding of law enforcement, growing of the economy — which grew at its fastest pace in history in the 3rd quarter — and a desire for a COVID-19 vaccine. These all favor Trump. I am not only seeing this amongst working-class white voters, but also with African-American and Hispanic voters.

I am giving you FREE access to all of our data and surveys (March, April, May, June, July, August, September and October + our two data reports/surveys analyzing the protest culture on consumers) — just go to winbigmedia.com and click on the “COVID-19 Consumer Research” tab. And, if you know someone that will benefit from these key insights, forward this article and/or data to them so they can use it in this critical moment. Also, when you subscribe to my exclusive bi-weekly data insights report, you will always get first access to the data before anyone else.

Founder/CEO: Win Big Media | Founder: Go Big Media | Repped by Vayner Speakers & Keppler Speakers | Author: “Fire Them Now: The 7 Lies Digital Marketers Sell…”

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